Oral Presentation Australian Society for Fish Biology Conference 2025

Accounting for individual- and population-level variation in fish migratory histories using hidden Markov models: a case study of tailor (Pomatomus saltatrix) (124822)

Daniel E Hewitt 1 , Patrick Reis-Santos 2 , Julian M Hughes 3 , John Stewart 3 , Kimberley A Smith 4 , James A Smith 5 , Jason D Everett 6 , Bronwyn Gillanders 2 , Iain M Suthers 1 7 , Hayden T Schilling 1 5
  1. School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2. Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
  3. Sydney Institute of Marine Science, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  4. Western Australian Fisheries and Marine Research Laboratories, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, North Beach, Western Australia, Australia
  5. Port Stephens Fisheries Institute, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Port Stephens, New South Wales, Australia
  6. School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
  7. Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Movement between estuarine and marine habitats is a common occurrence among many exploited fish species, often associated with recruitment and/or spawning, but individual-level variation in migratory strategies can complicate the development of simple, tractable models of migration. Elemental profiles from otoliths are often used to reconstruct fish movements, given the well-established relationship between strontium, barium and salinity. However, interpretation of habitat-use and movement can be complicated by spatial and temporal variation in ambient elemental concentrations within- and among habitats and populations. Using otolith elemental profiles from tailor (Pomatomus saltatrix) along the east and west coast of Australia, we demonstrate how hidden Markov models can be used to estimate the age (year class) when transitions between estuarine and marine habitats occur, while accounting for (i) individual-level variation in movement strategies, and (ii) population-level variation in how estuarine and marine habitats are characterized. This application adds to the statistical toolkit for the reconstruction of fish movements using otolith elemental profiles by providing a framework to account for the natural sources of variation expected in these data (e.g., individuals, habitats, populations). Ultimately, we believe this will contribute to enhanced inferences regarding how exploited species move between estuarine and marine habitats.