Oral Presentation Australian Society for Fish Biology Conference 2025

Marine heatwave evolution and impacts during the 24/25 Australian summer (124610)

Jason Hartog 1 , Alistair Hobday 1 , Claire Spillman 2 , Grant Smith 2
  1. CSIRO Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne

Australia experienced marine heatwaves in two regions over the 2024/25 summer. We recap the evolution of these events and evaluate MHW forecast performance. These MHWs impacted ocean processes, marine species, ecosystems, and coastal communities, and came with economic consequences. In western Australia, media reports covered bleaching, fish kills and low turtle nest hatching rates. In south-east Australia, a range of impacts that were linked to warm water were reported, including blooms of salps, Noctiluca and jellyfish. It is apparent that such impacts cause disruption to ocean users and businesses. Given that Australia’s forecasting capacity is world-leading, and briefings on forecasts are widely attended over the summer period – what more can be done? Despite advance warnings, interventions were limited. While many decision-makers agree that proactive strategies are needed, connection to the ecological impacts is often unclear. This makes some proactive decisions risky, but in other cases, decisions can be low risk or based on subsequent observations. We consider some case studies that may be beneficial for decision makers developing MHW response plans. We also provide an early look at the upcoming summer, and public access to forecasts.