Background
As global warming ramps up and extreme events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marine heatwaves, droughts, and floods become more frequent, climate preparedness will be critical for fisheries if they are to successfully adapt and mitigate these impacts. Short-lived, fast-growing species – such as tropical prawns – are highly sensitive to fluctuations in the environment particularly rainfall and ENSO.
Methods
Using the redleg banana prawn (Penaeus indicus) fishery as a case study, we highlight approaches being used to improve climate preparedness. These include embedded system knowledge such as collated outcomes from historical research; the use of modelling tools such as management strategy evaluation (MSE) to test revised harvest control rules (HCRs), community engagement and co-management to enable data-driven responses and the importance of climate communication and early warning systems to ensure stakeholders understand and can prepare for likely impacts on catch trends.
Results
Using a MSE framework co-developed with stakeholders, we first tested revised HCRs to recent climate extremes across northern Australia and found that there were multiple ways to revise a rule that could achieve robustness to observed ENSO extremes. Ultimately stakeholders needed to consider the trade-offs, uncertainties and logistics in selecting a preferred rule that would conserve prawn biomass while also account for fisher livelihood. We then used the MSE framework to consider HCRs based on alternative reference points under future climate extremes and found that HCRs performed differently under a future dry climate, but similarly under a future wet or intermediate climate.
Conclusion
Becoming climate prepared takes time and will require consideration of multiple scenarios and the integration of diverse approaches if fisheries are to withstand increasing climate variability. Effective communication of science and co-management with stakeholders is critical for the success of climate-proofing fisheries.